WHAT HAPPENS NEXT: WEEKLY UPDATE 11/15/24

I can’t imagine why, but just maybe things have felt like a bit of a roller coaster lately.  Speaking of roller coasters; Carowinds is a great area attraction located on the border of North and South Carolina, allowing visitors to stand with one foot in each state as they explore the park. Did you know the park’s name is a blend of “Carolina” and “winds,” inspired by the breezes that sweep through the region. It is also home to Fury 325, one of the tallest and fastest giga coasters in the world, reaching a height of 325 feet, speeds of up to 95 mph, and here are the 3 things you need to know this week.

Selling Sunrise: NAR Chief Economist forecasts a 9% increase in existing home sales and 11% increase in new home sales in 2025.

National Association of Realtors Chief Economist Lawrence Yun recently took the stage at NAR’s NXT conference and shared his outlook for 2025 and beyond.  His predictions are based on an expectation that mortgage rates have (and will remain) stabilized and the job market will continue to grow.  Homebuyers will also be encouraged with more inventory to choose from, and more negotiating leverage compared to the past five years.  However ultimately any recovery or uptick in home sales will be based on consumer acceptance of mortgage rates. Yun does anticipate four more rounds of rate cuts by the Federal Reserve in 2025, but he believes the new normal for 30-year mortgage rates will be in the 5.5% to 6.5% range.

Head Fake: September, existing home sales were at an annualized seasonally adjusted rate of 3.84 million, the lowest since October 2010.

In 2024 home sales went in a completely different direction than anticipated. “We expected a recovery, but instead it has been more of the same," said CoreLogic Chief Economist Selma Hepp at the time, calling 2024 "the year of the head fake." Heading into 2024 many expected double digit home sales increases. These forecasts were made anticipating inflation to ease allowing mortgage rates to cool by the prime selling spring season…that didn’t happen. Instead inflation continued to drive rates and by May we were in the 7-8% range.  Home prices maintained and in some cases continue to tick up, and even as inventory increased it remained well below the supply of a balanced market.

Hot to Trot: Wingate, NC (28174), Denver,NC (28037), and Mint Hill, NC (28227) top the list as hottest Charlotte area housing markets in Q3 2024.

This ranking spotlights the zip codes where activity is growing, prices are increasing, and speed/time in which homes sell is improving. This list isn’t meant to focus on the most expensive or popular markets, but instead utilizes a weighted formula that includes quarterly and year-over-year comparisons relative to the sales and pricing momentum in each ZIP code.  28075 (Harrisburg), 29715 (Fort Mill), and 28036 (Davidson) are the next three on the list of hottest Q3 zip codes. The zip code with the most homes sold in Q3 was 28078 (Huntersville) with 311 homes sold; coming in as the 11th hottest zip code over that time.

I hope you have a wonderful weekend and remember…We’re never as great as our best day - We’re never as bad as our worst day; Be Confident - Stay Humble.

Steve